Quote:
Originally Posted by Alannah-Shidreth
I don't think you're trying to hide anything. If I were to take a guess it's just disinterest in trying to find out why the statistics don't jive with the claimed rate of drop.

Below is a list of every recipe taken off of www.vanguardsoh.com. I also added in the ones that don't have the word "recipe" in them but drop in the appropriate tiers. How is this not 25% for blacksmith recipes? If it isn't there are recipes that still have not been discovered since the game's inception (I have been playing since the final beta and a blacksmith since day 1 of live).

Yes, perhaps the rate isn't 25% if you take into account whatever else you've added to that table to fluff it up so that the statistical chance of drop is actually lower. It still doesn't change the actual chances at all when we are only taking recipes into account.

If I told you toss a 6-sided die 100 times and ignore all even numbers because we're only looking for odd numbers then you would still have a 50% chance to get an odd number and a 50% chance to be forced to reroll. This gives us 100% chance of getting an odd number (go figure). We don't care about the rerolls (heroic tools, rare/ur resources, dusts, and whatever else is used to fluff the tables and make recipes more rare). We only care about what remains, odd numbers (recipes). Of what is left there is still only a 33% chance to get any one of the specific odd numbers on a 6-sided die. 1, 3 and 5. If we are looking for only the chance to roll a 1, then we compare the chances of getting one of the other two - .66. The chances of rolling only 3 and 5 and not getting a 1 are (.66)^(# of times in a row).

It is inconsequential whether or not there are other things on this drop table - it doesn't change the rate of drop when compared to each other. I have not received any other recipes at pyrite level than the ones listed and I've never heard a report that anyone else has either.

If the drop rate is equal for recipes of a given tier, I should have turned up 3.75 embersteel horseshoe recipes over the given statistical sample space of 15. I only got one. Searching the server's market yields gads of Pyrite Weapon and Pyrite Armor upgrade recipes, no shoes, no runes. If all those people that turned up all those recipes sold any extras they'd had then there should be several copies of those too because they'd stagnate on the market until a buyer came along that had a use for them. Just as the weapon and armor recipes are stagnating now.

Just because you put it in the tables and it should be an equal chance to drop doesn't mean there isn't a problem elsewhere - probably in the code and not in the database - that is affecting drop rates beyond just the simple statistics involved in putting something in a table (or on the face of a die). The problem could be tied to specific outposts, but it might not be. The chances that what happened to me would happen to someone else should be pretty slim, but it's not. Others have reported exactly the same thing. Unless we're all in that abysmal 2% .

There is no way of us knowing because nothing about the way that any of this works has been communicated. All we can do is compile large sample sizes and talk statistics.

Blacksmith (4)
Embersteel Horseshoe Recipe 31
Pyrite Runes 33
Pyrite Armor Upgrade Recipe 34
Pyrite Weapon Upgrade Recipe 34

Outfitter (6)
Coarse Leather Talismans 33
Silkbloom Armor Upgrade Recipe 34
Coarse Leather Armor Upgrade Recipe 34
Initiate Cloth Crafting Gear Upgrade Recipe 34
Initiate Leather Crafting Gear Upgrade Recipe 34
Coarse Leather Weapon Upgrade Recipe 34

Mineralogist (6)
Limestone Carvings 33
Jade Jewelry Upgrade Recipe 34
Limestone Focus Upgrade Recipe 34
Limestone Weapon Upgrade Recipe 34
Knotted Wood Focus Upgrade Recipe 34
Knotted Wood Weapon Upgrade Recipe 34

As I have stated several times the only things on recipe table are recipes. Regardless of what you should have received in most cases, that does not change the fact that it is indeed possible to not receive the item hence the term chance to drop. There is not a problem with the rate it has been checked. Every time someone asks about drop rates I go into game and I check them and funny enough they work, if they don’t I fix them and let the community know.

In this case all I can say is that they work fine. I have sat here and tested them over and over and there is nothing wrong with the tables, or the code. Short of you coming into this office and seeing me actually test it that is all I can offer you, the drop rate is fine and it is not being altered.

What more do you want communicated, the rules on recipe drops have been posted here several times.

5 item work orders
Supply kits only
Chance to roll on recipe table
Recipe table has only recipes on it
All recipes have the same percentage chance to drop from that table

What more do you want expressed?


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