Quote:
Originally Posted by Alannah-Shidreth
I never asked for the rate to be changed, I asked that whatever is causing this recipe not to drop at the 25% rate that was claimed to be fixed.

Simple statistics and probability tells us that if all recipe drops are at an equal rate, for blacksmiths at pyrite level this means we have a 25% chance that any recipe that drops will be Embersteel Horseshoes. There are four recipes: Pyrite Weapon, Pyrite Armor, Embersteel Horseshoes and Pyrite Runes.

I got 14 pyrite recipes (only 1 was runes, BTW, which is also fudged). The statistical chance that I would get 14 recipes in a row that were not the one I was grinding for is (.75)^14. This comes out to 0.018 or about 2% chance that I could get that many recipes in a row before getting the one I wanted.

This means that for all of you out there that got 14 recipes (yeah, right) before obtaining this recipe, 98.2% of you would have gotten it before me. One other player posted exactly the same set of results that I had from an entirely different server from me.

I will still stand by my assertion that there is something broken with this drop rate if it is supposed to be equal to the rate of drops for other recipes. I am not asking for an increase in the rate, I am pointing out a flaw in the statistics that should be addressed.

If the rate is supposed to be lower, admit to it. If it's not supposed to be lower, fix it.

The rate is equal for all recipes on a given table. While it is statistically unlikely for you to have such a streak it is still possible. There is nothing broken and they have the same drop chance as anything else. If you can’t take me for my word then I guess you will just continue to think I am trying to hide something. Of course why I would want hide anything related to this is beyond me but believe what you want the way it is set up now is not changing.

P.S. Your guess of 25% is actually low. The last time anything was touched in regards to that loot table was March 12th when they were added to the loot table after we discovered they had somehow never been attached.


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